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Experiments
Experiment design with pre-committed kill-criteria, result vs target judged by the engine, and learning routed to build / Go-Kill. The cycle's third subjective-input channel lives here: dialogue-refine (turn the step in conversation).
Venture Guide: DifferenZ — Triage the idea and confirm a founder match before it promotes to the feed.
Design the experiment
T2
Set hypothesis, success metric, cost, clock and the pre-committed kill-criteria.
Dogfood-demo: Clearly-labelled dogfood demo: the 6 companies (MyStdy · Servicely · DifferenZ · Exponic · Digna · Kollied) are companies Espen holds a stake in, used ONLY as demo data to exercise the engines — never as proof that venture building works. Every demo row is flagged dogfood and held out of every client-facing aggregate (DEL 98-3).
Experiment design — pre-committed kill criterion
Hypothesis · success metric · cost · clock · kill criterion set BEFORE the result (not post-rationalised).
Onboarding < 1 day → activation
target: ≥ 40% activation in 30 days · kill criterion (pre-committed): < 25% activation in 30 days → kill
Paid pilot on a cold list
target: ≥ 3 paid pilots in 45 days · kill criterion (pre-committed): 0 paid pilots in 45 days → kill (pre-committed)
Price elasticity, high segment
target: ≥ 20% acceptance at +25% price · kill criterion (pre-committed): < 10% acceptance → drop segment
Results — judged via the engine
Result vs target → verdict + route. Only a miss that meets the kill criterion flips the hypothesis.
Onboarding < 1 day → activationmet → build
result: 44% activation · result cleared the pre-committed kill-criteria → met; route to build
Paid pilot on a cold listmissed → kill · hypothesis invalidated
result: 0 paid pilots · result met the PRE-COMMITTED kill-criteria → missed; route to kill (flips the linked hypothesis to invalidated)
Price elasticity, high segmentinconclusive → iterate
result: no reading · no decisive result observed — inconclusive; iterate the experiment
Learning → routing
Capture the learning and route to build / Go-Kill.
Fast onboarding drives activation — build on it.
Cold list does not convert — the kill criterion triggered; hypothesis invalidated.
No decisive reading yet — iterate.
Proposed
Set hypothesis, success metric, cost, clock and the pre-committed kill-criteria.
Live commit · connected store
TALK TO THE PROGRAM — about this sub-step