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Validation Case
Problem & JTBD, a hypothesis register with validation clocks, evidence with provenance, and bottom-up market sizing.
Venture Guide: DifferenZ — Triage the idea and confirm a founder match before it promotes to the feed.
Lock the problem & JTBD
T1
State the problem, job-to-be-done and the ICP hypothesis.
Dogfood-demo: Clearly-labelled dogfood demo: the 6 companies (MyStdy · Servicely · DifferenZ · Exponic · Digna · Kollied) are companies Espen holds a stake in, used ONLY as demo data to exercise the engines — never as proof that venture building works. Every demo row is flagged dogfood and held out of every client-facing aggregate (DEL 98-3).
Problem & JTBD
Problem statement + job-to-be-done + ICP hypothesis (demo: Servicely).
ProblemService businesses lack an operational backbone (plan → deliver → invoice)
JTBD“Get the job planned, delivered and invoiced without losing oversight”
ICP hypothesisNordic service SMBs, 5–50 employees, field-heavy
Hypotheses — validation clocks
Each hypothesis is critical-or-not, with its own clock + kill criterion. Bucketed via the clocksDue engine.
1 overdue · 1 soon · 1 later (closed clocks are not shown)
Service SMBs pay for an operational backbonecriticaloverdue
kill criterion: No paid pilot by the deadline → kill · clock 2026-06-15
Onboarding < 1 day drives activationcriticaldue soon
kill criterion: < 40% activation in 30 days → invalidated · clock 2026-06-22
Accounting integration lowers churnlater
kill criterion: No churn effect in 90 days → drop · clock 2026-08-01
Evidence
Evidence with provenance + evidence class (register beats self-report).
3 customer interviews (class 4)Self-report — supports the problemprovenance: interview note, tenant-isolated
Industry NACE volume (class 2)Register-verified account baseprovenance: Brønnøysund/Enin
1 paid pilot (class 3)Document — underwayprovenance: pilot agreement
Market — bottom-up sizing
TAM/SAM/SOM computed bottom-up; every figure is click-to-source.
tam = totalAccounts × averageContractValueNok; sam = tam × serviceableShare; som = sam × obtainablePenetration
TAM960 000 000 NOKTAM = 80000 accounts × 12000 NOK/account = 960000000 NOK
SAM336 000 000 NOKSAM = 960000000 NOK × 0.35 serviceable share = 336000000 NOK
SOM13 440 000 NOKSOM = 336000000 NOK × 0.04 obtainable penetration = 13440000 NOK
Proposed
State the problem, job-to-be-done and the ICP hypothesis.
Live commit · connected store
TALK TO THE PROGRAM — about this sub-step